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Coalition Government a likely senario.

Voting intentions

Fred Wesley
Saturday, September 06, 2014

Interesting figures have come out of the final Tebbutt-Times Poll as the countdown continues to our first election since 2006.

FijiFirst leader Rear Admiral (Ret) Voreqe Bainimarama has maintained his lead in the polls as the preferred choice of Prime Minister ahead of the September 17 general election.

However, there has been a significant shift in numbers.

Rear Admiral (Ret) Voreqe Bainimarama continues to lead SODELPA’s Ro Teimumu Kepa on the preferred PM measure.

He was chosen by 49 per cent of people surveyed and holds a majority across both genders and all age groups. The figure is, however, a significant drop from 60 per cent in August.

Ro Teimumu, on the other hand was named by 20 per cent of respondents, up from 17 per cent last month.

National Federation Party leader Biman Prasad and Peoples Democratic Party leader Felix Anthony have also attracted interest.

Interestingly though, those who refused to respond sat at seven per cent and those who were unsure sat at 15 per cent.

Given these latest statistics, there will no doubt be a concerted effort by political parties and independents to sway the last two figures just over a week away from the polling day on September 17.

FijiFirst also leads the political party choice with 45 per cent against SODELPA’s 21 per cent.

Interestingly the two parties are now much closer together than the past few months even though FijiFirst maintains a strong lead.

Judging by the results, ethnicity is emerging as an important factor in voting intention.

What is also interesting is the number of undecided voters at 11 per cent meaning more than one in 10 voters don’t know who they will vote for at this stage.

As we head down the final stretch to the elections, campaigns will intensify.

Anything can happen over the next week and seasoned politicians know that.

It seems campaign messages are slowly starting to sink in and the masses are making up their minds.

The trend in voting intention over four months has shown SODELPA attracting attention among voters.

The party rose from eight per cent in May and June to 17 per cent in August before climbing to 21 per cent in this latest poll.

FijiFirst has maintained its strong lead though, starting off at 56 per cent in May, slightly dropping to 53 per cent in June before picking up again at 56 per cent in August before the drop to 45 per cent in this latest poll.

Strategies will no doubt be set now as the various parties and independent candidates take one final shot at attracting the masses. The onus now is really on you the voter to be informed.

2 thoughts on “Coalition Government a likely senario.

  1. Fred misses the point like most other people.

    Assuming that the poll is correct, it means that there is likely to be only parties in parliament: Fiji First and sodelpa.

    Secondly, if the other parties do not get the 5% threshold, the 49% votes will equate to around 55% of seats after “cleansing” of the smaller parties.

    Hence, sodelpa will be in opposition with approx 45% of the seats. This assumption is based on the fact that all undecided and voters who did not reveal their choice to favour Sodelpa.

    If in the event that the 22% of undecided or voters who did not reveal who they will vote choose FF and sodelpa equally, FF will get round 61% of the votes or 65% of the seats.

    So Fred, pls go and understand how the maths work.

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