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Ex Croz Walsh’s Blog

Last Saturday’s Razor poll showed two major changes from earlier weeks. The People’s Democratic Party founded by trade unionists jumped from one to eight percent and the PM’s party Fiji First dropped from 66 to 57%. The Sun’s political editor Nemani Delaibatiki attributed the PDP rise to uncertainties surrounding the Fiji Labour Party with the outcome of Chaudhry’s sentence still uNknown, and the FF’s fall to a spike the week before when the PM lauNched his blue bus campaign.

Several of my Fiji friends and former colleagues doubt the reliability of the Razor Polls, inferring that the results are rigged.

Razor and the Fiji Sun are owned by C.J. Patel which raises questions of the poll independence. I have no way of checking on these accusations but I can’t see why anyone would run a faked poll right up to the elections when their accuracy will be known, and possible duplicity exposed. For a few weeks perhaps, to influence public opinion, but not for the whole time.

Another friend pointed to how an earlier polls conducted by Tebbutt Poll were frequently well out with their predictions, and this of course is a “given” with with all polls but the Razor polls to dte show very clear results which raise only two questions: 1. Did those questioned fear giving their honest opinions? 2. Has Razor fudged the results?

I shall continue to record and report poll results for some more weeks, and then attempt an analysis of findings, trends and reliability.



15 thoughts on “Ex Croz Walsh’s Blog

  1. I admire Croz’s optimism – but the idea that no one would be stupid enough to rig polls until the election either forgets the regimes track record in being dim, and the fact for them; this is an end game.

    They will do all they can to win; including being stupid.

  2. Fiji will more than likely NOT be having elections this year. If elections do take place, then a coup can be expected if Bainimarama loses the elections, or Khaiyum will “rig” the election results in their favour.

    We are already seeing activities to support rigged and fraudulent elections – This includes:
    No exit polling
    the complex ballot
    minimum time allowed for “other” political parties to campaign
    no media freedom
    no freedom of speech
    the illegal constitution forced onto the people of Fiji
    the illegal electoral decree
    lies and broken promises
    deliberate breaches of their own electoral decree
    the corrupt and puppet electoral commission
    no rule of law
    military officer in senior government positions
    the inexperienced, unqualified and puppet supervisor of elections

  3. Fiji’s dictator is desperate to win the elections and to stay in power or it will mean certain arrest and imprisonment for him and his group of corrupt, parasitic friends and family.
    Therefore, his illegal and megalomaniac AG, Khaiyum, has been working the system through his corrupt judiciary, illegal decrees, puppet electoral Commission, and his unqualified and inexperienced Supervisor of Elections who has not voted before in any general elections, to rig the elections in the dictator’s favour.

  4. Am not a statistican but doubt if the polls are rigged. Nonetheless, my basic maths tells me all this surveys or polls have a margin of error. An acceptable margin of error is ±5%.

    In this case, the margin may be slightly higher at at around ±10%.

    Secondly, is the sample representative.

    However, there seems to be some consistency.

    I agree that Mick Beddose is not popular and
    The poll acurately reflects that less than 1% support for him. Mick will know that on the evening of 17 september.

  5. Exactly anonymous at 9.11pm. The people appointed to various top positions and given very lucrative contracts are there not through merit but by cronism and many through nepotism and others as associates to facilitate the objectives of the regime. All are there because of strong vested interests – whose ultimate aim is to retain power for the regime. Take Chen Bun who is the chairman of the EC – he is the lawyer of the Nur Bano and Khaiyum family. Saneem the SOE is a family of iarse – despite being less qualified than other applicants saneem was given the job just to protect each others interests. There is no independent and unbiased person running the various important institutions. All are there to protect each other as they all will stand to lose if the regime is ousted in the election. Hence all the machination going on to steal the election result in the regime’s favor. Look at all the breaches bai is commiting in contravention to all the election decrees. They will break rules and conventions just to retain power.

  6. WHO owns the PO Box 555 which Fiji’s illegal Attorney-General and Minister for Elections Aiyaz Sayed Khaiyum listed as the registrant’s postal code when he bought the domain name Fiji First in 2009 for military dictator Frank Bainimarama to use in the September general election?

    It seems the post code belongs to Khaiyum’s aunty Nur Bano Ali’s chartered accountancy firm BDO Zarin Ali. For the same post code is cited in documents relating to Latifa Investments, the family company owned by Aiyaz Khaiyum and his mother Latifa. Latifa Investments is 99 per cent owned by Khaiyum and one per cent by his mother. Nur Bano Ali is Khaiyum’s maternal aunt, sister of Khaiyum’s mother Latifa. Bano Ali is also the illegal regime’s pay mistress.

  7. Whoever said Ashwin Raj has been sacked from USP is wrong. In fact he is very nicely ensconced here under the protective wings of our regime-loving VC Rajesh Chandra. Double standards are rife here. Ashwin is making political statements but does not lose his job while Lydia Tubuya was sacked. This is racism.

  8. There is not only racism at USP against people like Lydia. The tyrant in the form of VC eliminates people who show any competition, question him, has popularity, intelligence and intergrity. He loves to be sorounded by people who suck up to his silly decision making. It’s okay for SMT to go on one day retreats, wine and dine at hotels, while similar conference facilities that are state of art remain vacant at USP. It’s okay for SMT members to be gifted wines, champagne and chocolates while staying in 5-star hotels while 80% of teaching staff are overworked,exploited, bullied and underpaid. It’s okay to waste thousands on elearning, mlearning and all the rubbish that his Madam Jokhan talks about when 60% of campuses are still without adequate internet and basic facilities. For as long as Rajesh is around staff at USP will be bullied, threatened,fired and asked to resign. Good bless staff at USP under this tyrant .

  9. Charmaine
    What about Jai Kumar ( husband of Premilla Kumar of Consumer Council) the marketing director of USP who got the job without an advertisement and relevant qualification. Can someone tell if this position was advertised and what is Jai Kumar’s qualification? Why was he removed from his last job? Who recommended him to the job at USP? This is RACISM, NEPOTISM at USP..

  10. Croz, you overlook a very simple mechanism here: If you want to rigg elections, you first have to rigg polls. You do not want to be seen as inaccurate or inconstant when the PM’s party is announced the winner.

  11. Our great leaders have instructed the Sun not to go overboard with the polls. A simple majority for Fiji First (say 53.2%) is completely sufficient to legitimise the best government Fiji has ever had. Our original strategy suggested that 98.78% of the relevant population support Khaiyum and his friends but this smacks a bit of rigging. So lets be more realistic and settle for a simple majority. The opposition in parliament can be silenced with legislation later as our great leader does not like these endless, unproductive debates that typically take place in parliaments.

  12. Fiji’s overall standard of living has declined sharply. In the UN Human Development Index (HDI) Fiji was raked 46 in 1995. Its ranking fell to 86 in 2008. The latest data in 2012 indicates it has slipped to 96 out of 187 countries behind Tonga which was ranked 95.

    Fiji’s life expectancy had declined from 73 in 2000 to 69 in 2012, less than that for Tonga and Samoa at 73. But this is hardly indicative of the ground reality. According to statistics quoted in a WHO report (2011), Fiji people are dying young – shockingly only 16 % live beyond 50 and 8% past 60.

  13. Why can’t Mohammed Saneem be as forceful in upholding the Political Parties Registration Decree as Ashwin Raj is in upholding the Media Decree?

    Yeah, it’s just a question of whose toast is being buttered.

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